Destiny & the Fate of Activision/Blizzard

Destiny is a $500 Million Gamble.

Holy cow that’s a truckload of money.

More importantly, the games industry isn’t like the movie industry which can absorb commercial failures on projects of that size. The net result is Activision has basically taken a huge risk with not only it’s own financial future, but Blizzard’s as well. It just seems unnecessary to take this level of risk. The only reason why they’re doing so, that makes any sense to me, is because the time to create content vs. the consumption ratio is so off-kilter.

Even as I wrote that, I doubted it. Back to movies for a second. Budget of your a block-buster 2 hour movie is north of $100 Million. Ten hours of gameplay for $500 Million is proportional, but that’s not how risk works. Risk is exponential, not linear proportional, with a unknown until it’s too late breaking point.

This just seems like inviting disaster.

I’m very concerned…